Box Office Preview: ‘Insurgent’ to Top, But Lag

By March 21, 2015
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This weekend’s box office is expected to be led by Shailene Woodley’s second leading effort in the popular Divergent series, but the second entry already seems to be lagging behind the first film.

According to box office analysts at VarietyThe Divergent Series: Insurgent is expected to have an opening weekend total in the $50-54 million range, which is slightly less than the $54.6 million opening of the original film, last year’s more simply titled Divergent, which opened on the same weekend last year. This figure was revised upward within 24 hours of an earlier estimate placing it at around $40-45 million, and is expected to be bolstered further by strong international numbers, which could lead the film to a worldwide opening weekend over the $100 million range.

No small feat, by any standard, but given the trend of popular franchises seeing increased performance in its sequels — with the most comparable situation in this case being the takes between The Hunger Games and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — this may be somewhat disappointing news for Lionsgate. This is especially true when considering that Shailene Woodley has had a higher degree of prominence over the past year, as well as the fact that The Divergent Series: Allegiant is expected to lead this point of the year both in 2016 and 2017, having been split into two films (which seems to be common practice today).

Number two at the box office this weekend is likely to be last weekend’s champion, Disney’s Cinderella, directed by Kenneth Branagh. The figure is expected to fall in the $34-35 million range, which sees a noticeable but manageable drop of about 50% when compared to last weekend. This weekend’s other new major release, Sean Penn’s The Gunman, has had modest expectations going into its opening bow, and is expected to take in anywhere from $5-7 million this weekend. How that will ultimately factor into the performance of the $40 million budgeted movie will be interesting to see.

For the final weekend box office numbers, be sure to check back tomorrow!

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Chris Clow
As a former comics retailer at a store in the Pacific Northwest, Chris Clow is an enormous sci-fi, comics, and film geek. He is a freelance contributor, reviewer, podcaster, and overall geek to GeekNation, Batman-On-Film.com, The Huffington Post, and Movies.com. He also hosts the monthly Comics on Consoles broadcast and podcast. Check out his blog, and follow him on Twitter @ChrisClow.